Drivers of Prediction Accuracy in World Politics…Keep digging, Tetlock!

Silberzahn & Jones

downloadPhilip Tetlock and his team have just released an interesting article entitled “The Psychology  of Intelligence Analysis: Drivers of Prediction Accuracy in World Politics” in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied (January 12, 2015).  Their article summarizes the findings of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) tournament that we drew our readers attention to in 2013.  If you’re interested in intelligence analysis, forecasting or geopolitics, the article is certainly worth your time.  Nevertheless, we have our differences with Messrs Tetlock et al.

Some of the article’s conclusions are part of the received wisdom of forecasting.  For example, they conclude, “We developed a profile of the best forecasters; they were better at inductive reasoning, pattern detection, cognitive flexibility, and open-mindedness. They had greater understanding of geopolitics, training in probabilistic reasoning, and opportunities to succeed in cognitively enriched team environments. Last but not least, they viewed forecasting as a skill that required deliberate practice…

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